Thursday, June 25, 2015

CAF Intelligence Predicted Libyan Civil War

As Canada continues its foray in Iraq and Syria - there have been many opponents of the mission. A report was quietly released earlier this year that CAF Intelligence predicted the current state of civil war in Libya following the 2011 intervention of NATO and it's bombing campaign.

The documents were found by The Ottawa Citizen. CAF Intelligence made warnings just bads before several nationals (mainly NATO allies) including Canada began their March 2011 bombing campaign against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The campaign in Libya began on March 19, 2011, while Canadian CF-18's began bombing runs on March 23, 2011.

Following Gaddafi's defeat, Libya decended into chaos - as rival tribes and militias began to battle each other for control of the country. Libyan Foreign Minister Mohamad Dayri has warned that factions are pushing Libya into a complete full-scale civil war. Italy is now concerned that ISIS might be successful in gaining a permanent stronghold in Libya - especially as the U.S. led coalition against ISIS is focuses in Syria and Iraq.

The Canadian government and military played a main role in the overthrowing of Gaddafi, and the government took credit for those efforts and touted a victory for Libya and Canadians. However, people are warning the coalition not to make the same mistakes in Iraq, and especially Syria, where the West wants Bashar Al Assad removed from power. A similar power vacuum could be created if the Syrian regime just collapses.

CAF Intelligence officers tried to raise concerns early in the conflict that removing Gaddafi would play into the hands of Islamic extremists, but according military sources - those warmings went ignored.

The RCAF flew 10% of the missions during the NATO campaign.