CAF Heading back to Libya?

Written by David Pugliese, 

There has been a lot of talk about a new coalition to intervene against Islamic extremists in Libya. Those extremists took over parts of the country in the wake of the 2011 removal by rebels of Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi.

The opposition groups had support from NATO and Canadian CF-18s and other aircraft took part in that bombing campaign.

Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has suggested that Canada might take part in a new mission to Libya to deal with ISIL operating from that country, if that comes about.

“There’s a much more significant threat of ISIL in that region and that’s the reason we are having greater discussions on that,” Sajjan recently told journalists.

The Pentagon is reported to have presented U.S. President Barack Obama with plans for extensive airstrikes against ISIL training camps in Libya.

It could be a long haul, however, to get Libya stable. The top U.S. general in Africa says the country is now a failed state.

Army Gen. David Rodriguez said that foreign fighters, weapons and illegal migrants are flowing through the oil-rich North African country, supplying the conflicts in Syria and Iraq with combatants and threatening U.S. allies, the Associated Press writes.

Here is the rest of the Associated Press article:

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Rodriguez said the recent agreement to form a unity government in Tripoli is an important step. Yet even with strong international support, the new government will struggle for the “foreseeable future” to establish its authority and secure Libya’s people and borders, he said.

Rodriguez estimated that it would take “10 years or so” to achieve long-term stability in Libya. He cited a “fractured society” and the lack of government institutions as major hurdles to overcome.

“The continued absence of central government control will continue to perpetuate violence, instability and allow the conditions for violent extremist organizations to flourish until the (government) and appropriate security forces are operational within Libya,” Rodriguez told the committee.

Rodriguez’s assessment comes nearly two weeks after Secretary of State John Kerry stopped short of declaring Libya as failed, citing the selection of a prime minister-designate to lead the new government.

“It’s close,” Kerry said last month during testimony before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee. “If they cannot get themselves together, yes, it will be a failed state.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., asked Rodriguez to quantify how much of Libya is under the control of extremist groups. Rodriguez replied that the Islamic State group controls the area in and around its stronghold city of Sirte.

The Islamic State has been recruiting militants from abroad into Libya in an effort to exploit years of chaos and expand its foothold there.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said the Islamic State now commands 5,000 fighters in Libya.

Libya must be next front in the war against ISIS

Written by: Matthew Fisher, National Post 

Canada’s larger training mission with the Peshmerga in northern Iraq will not get underway until the back half of May, but preliminary discussions are already underway about what must come next.

Photo: CAF Combat Camera: OP IMPACT

The U.S. has performed airstrikes against the Islamic State group in Libya, and Italian, British and French forces are planning an international mission there, but Ottawa has said little about Canadian involvement in the country.

And what must come next is Libya.

Turning the Islamic State group back in Mesopotamia is the first part of a larger battle to rein in this gang of murderous religious zealots whose ambitions are much greater than simply dominating a stretch of desert between Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Although a long way from being defeated, Islamic State appears today to be on the defensive in Iraq. But the Daesh brand — and those who claim an allegiance to it and its dream of a vast caliphate where Shariah law is supreme — continues to grow in other parts of the Islamic world, from Southeast Asia to Afghanistan, subSaharan Africa and North Africa.

This is especially true of Libya, which has been allowed to devolve into a lawless state since NATO warplanes deposed Moammar Gadhafi. Libya’s importance is obvious: it sits at the crossroads between southern Europe and Sudan, Chad, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, where Islamic terror is encouraging others in equatorial Africa, and it has a malignant influence on events in Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt.

Islamic State is already causing grief for Egypt and putting pressure on Israel because of its machinations in the Sinai Peninsula, where the independent Multinational Force and Observers peacekeeping organization is led by a Canadian — Maj.-Gen. Denis Thompson, who once ran Canada’s war in Kandahar.

How will NATO respond if Islamic State becomes seaborne and uses North Africa as a launching point for terrorist attacks on southern Europe or to disrupt trade in the Mediterranean? After all, unlike Iraq and Syria, Libya is practically in Europe’s backyard. Tripoli is less than a thousand kilometres from Greece and Italy, and even closer to Malta, with its strong ties to Britain and membership in the European Union.

What role Canada and the West might play across this much broader canvas is already being talked about in Ottawa, at NATO headquarters in Belgium and at announced and unannounced meetings in Washington, D.C., Europe and the Middle East.

Gen. Joseph Dunford, the marine who is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke late last month of the need “to take decisive action” against the group in Libya. U.S. jets and drones carried out airstrikes three days ago against an Islamic State training camp on the Mediterranean coast near Tunisia, and U.S. special forces are undoubtedly already conducting covert operations in the neighbourhood.

An Italian three-star general is to lead an eventual international military mission in Libya, although what shape it will take and what its mandate will be remains unclear. The British will help the Italians. The French are to be involved, too.

Ottawa has said almost nothing publicly about its potential involvement there. However, Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan had private talks about Libya in Europe in December and again this month.

In many respects an international operation against Islamic State in Libya would be tailor-made for Canada, given the Trudeau government’s championing of what has been described as Canada’s unique expertise in helping failed states with a comprehensive approach that includes governance, humanitarian aid and development.

Another f actor t hat should compel Canada to act: we bear some responsibility for the chaos now gripping Libya. A Canadian general, Charlie Bouchard, ran the successful NATO air campaign against Gadhafi in 2011. Regrettably, neither Canada — which contributed CF-18 fighters to that push — nor its allies had any plan to restore order in Libya once Gadhafi was gone. The anarchy that followed the dictator’s death created a vacuum Islamic State has inevitably and ruthlessly exploited.

Canada’s special forces, already assisting the Peshmerga in Iraq, will likely be involved in Libya. But these commandos should only be a small part of an eventual whole-of-government approach using parts of Canada’s Afghan template, which could involve conventional forces serving as trainers, as well as experts from half a dozen government ministries and agencies to help establish the stability that Libya desperately needs.

The bedlam in Libya presents the UN Security Council with an opportunity to pass a resolution authorizing an international response to Libya. For once, Western, Russian and Chinese interests may be in sync on such an undertaking.

The Islamic State’s rise in Iraq and Syria happened largely because the West and its Arab allies were asleep to the consequences, including the refugee crisis it spawned. The key for Canada and its allies is to get ahead of the group for once, and end its ability to dominate the narrative. Eliminate the jihadists in Libya before they can establish the deep roots there that they have now in Iraq and Syria.

Sajjan Hints at Possible CAF Mission in Libya

Written by CBC News
Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan says Canada could soon join a military coalition to take on ISIS in Libya, a country beset by a civil war and mounting Islamic terrorism.
"I had a good meeting with my counterpart, the minister of defence from Italy, [on military intervention in Libya]," Sajjan said following a NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels..

"Italy is willing to take the lead on this; once we have a good understanding of the political situation, that will allow us to figure out what we need to do," said in an interview with Chris Hall on CBC Radio's The House.

More than four years after Moammar Gadhafi was deposed — in large part due to Western military intervention — Islamic State militants have taken advantage of the resulting political vacuum to establish themselves in Libya's coastal cities.

An estimated 3,000 ISIS fighters are in the country, which has been attracting more foreign recruits in recent months as the journey to Iraq and Syria has become more difficult with Turkey tightening its border with Syria.

Italy has said it wants a leadership role in stabilizing Libya — one of its former colonial possessions — because it is located less than 300 km from the Italian island of Lampedusa.

ISIS-backed elements have carried out several attacks on oil installations, and at least 60 were killed by an suicide bombing against a Libyan police training center earlier this month.

"Before we can actually say 'Yes we're interested,' 'Yes we can do this,' we're doing what all responsible coalition partners should do [asses the political and security situation] and then decide if we have the right capabilities to assist in this mission.

"We will be part of that conversation," Sajjan said.

The defence minister said that any military action in Libya would be based on lessons learned from Canada's experience in Afghanistan.

"It's all about fighting smarter ... there needs to be a political structure in place that you can reinforce so that when you have the military gains you then have a political structure," to safeguard peace and quell ethnic tensions, he said.
'State of emergency' in Libya

At the recent anti-ISIS meeting in Paris — Canada was not invited — Roberta Pinotti, Italy's defence minister, said action must be taken to beat back advances made by the Islamic State.

"We cannot imagine waiting until spring while the situation in Libya is still frozen," she said. "Efforts to resolve the Libyan crisis must be coordinated internationally," Pinotti added, warning that "it is impossible for the international intervention to wait until the upcoming spring."

Pinotti said that there was "total agreement" among the coalition partners at the Paris meeting that Libya's government should ask the West for help to fight ISIS, to avoid fuelling "jihadist propaganda" of yet another "Western invasion."

She went on to say that the so-called Islamic State was strengthening in the current political vacuum, prompting Italy and its allies to prepare for an "emergency," adding that the United States recently has expressed "a greater concern" over ISIS militants in Libya.



With files from Reuters

CAF Intelligence Predicted Libyan Civil War

As Canada continues its foray in Iraq and Syria - there have been many opponents of the mission. A report was quietly released earlier this year that CAF Intelligence predicted the current state of civil war in Libya following the 2011 intervention of NATO and it's bombing campaign.

The documents were found by The Ottawa Citizen. CAF Intelligence made warnings just bads before several nationals (mainly NATO allies) including Canada began their March 2011 bombing campaign against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The campaign in Libya began on March 19, 2011, while Canadian CF-18's began bombing runs on March 23, 2011.

Following Gaddafi's defeat, Libya decended into chaos - as rival tribes and militias began to battle each other for control of the country. Libyan Foreign Minister Mohamad Dayri has warned that factions are pushing Libya into a complete full-scale civil war. Italy is now concerned that ISIS might be successful in gaining a permanent stronghold in Libya - especially as the U.S. led coalition against ISIS is focuses in Syria and Iraq.

The Canadian government and military played a main role in the overthrowing of Gaddafi, and the government took credit for those efforts and touted a victory for Libya and Canadians. However, people are warning the coalition not to make the same mistakes in Iraq, and especially Syria, where the West wants Bashar Al Assad removed from power. A similar power vacuum could be created if the Syrian regime just collapses.

CAF Intelligence officers tried to raise concerns early in the conflict that removing Gaddafi would play into the hands of Islamic extremists, but according military sources - those warmings went ignored.

The RCAF flew 10% of the missions during the NATO campaign.

CAF Says "NO" to another Libyan Intervention

As Canada and the coalition continues to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria, ISIS is starting to take a hold of parts of Libya.

Egypt recently deployed air strikes against ISIS positions in Libya as retaliation against the murder of 21 Coptic Christians. With the Libyan Civil War wagging, and continually getting worse, ISIS is advancing through the country. Egypt has approached the United Nations for an international coalition against ISIS in Libya. Italy has seconded the call, for fears that refugees running from the civil war will include ISIS members looking to get into Europe.

Canada, and the CAF will not be part of any military coalition to Libya it seems. The 2011 ousting of Gadhafi was Canada's effort to help Libya, but that military intervention only seems to have propelled the country deeper into a Tribal war, which is turning into a full blow civil war.

Canada is not alone in standing this possible military coalition out - The United States, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom have all called for a diplomatic solution to the problem, and not a military intervention.

The 2011 ousting of Gadhafi was a major political win for NATO and Canada, who touted its role in the victory, which saw CF-18s in combat for the first time since the Gulf War (1990-1991). Perhaps the political situation that Libya has fallen into since the previous military intervention is causing some doubts about limited military (aerial) interventions.

Despite France's call for a diplomatic solution, France has recently announced several large military sales to Egypt, including its Rafael fighter jet - perhaps this is France's way of helping fight ISIS in Egypt, indirectly.


Original Article:
Ottawa Citizen/National Post