Canadians in Latvia to keep calm and carry on in face of massive Russian military exercise

By: Murray Brewster, CBC News

The Canadian military is taking a wait-and-see approach to a massive Russian military exercise scheduled to take place on the border of the Baltic states this summer — but the country it's being asked to protect is decidedly more nervous.

Defence officials in the United States said this week that they will pay close attention to the drills, which are expected to involve between 70,000 and 100,000 Russian troops equipped with tanks, armoured vehicles, aircraft and helicopters.

The exercise known as Zapad, or West, occurs every few years and Latvia's ambassador to Canada, Karlis Eihenbaums, says it is always a nerve-rattling time.

"The previous exercise was not very comfortable for us," he said in an interview. "We were always uncomfortable with these exercises because of the size. It's huge."

The fact Russian troops are practising to advance into the West is even more alarming.

"You cannot feel safe," Eihenbaums told CBC News.

Related:
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Canadian-led battle group to deploy to Latvia, to deter Russia

The timing is particularly significant for Canadian troops and aircrew.

The Russian exercise will kick off just as the multinational, Canadian-led NATO battle group in Latvia is fully activated, and as a flight of CF-18s resume air-policing missions over the Baltic.

The first of 450 Canadian troops are expected to deploy to their base near Riga, Latvia, next month, and they will be joined over the summer by hundreds of other soldiers from Poland, Italy, Spain, Slovenia and Albania.

Brig.-Gen. Simon Hetherington (centre) is commander of the 3rd Canadian Division which oversaw the training of the the troops deploying to Latvia. (DND\MCpl Melanie Ferguson)

Eihenbaums said the NATO deployment, coming in the face of the Russian exercise, will make for a time of extraordinary tension.

Some of that strain, at least for Western military officials, also involves the expectation that Russia will upgrade its missile defences in Kaliningrad, a sliver of land tucked between Poland and Lithuania. Moscow is thought to be permanently upgrading its nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missile systems, which are capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometres away.
'Tripwire' battalions

The Liberal government agreed last summer to lead one of four NATO battalions that are being deployed in eastern Europe as a check against possible Russian expansionism.

The tiny Baltic countries are members of the Western military alliance and asked for the deterrence measures.

The battle groups have been referred to as "tripwires," much to the chagrin of the army, because in the event of a full-scale Russian military action, they would be quickly overwhelmed. In fact, the U.S. think-tank the Rand Corporation estimated in a 2016 report that the Baltic states could be overrun in as little 36 hours.

It is that kind of operation that Russian troops will be practising in September.

A spokesperson for the Department of National Defence, Col. Jay Janzen, said every sovereign nation "has the right to exercise its military forces and Zapad falls into that category."

He pointed out Canada will be conducting its own drill at the base in Wainwright, Alta. But exercise Maple Resolve involves just 7,000 troops.
Is there a threat?

Whether the Canadian military believes there's a threat from the manoeuvres on the Latvian border will depend on how Russian troops conduct themselves, said Janzen.

"If the purpose of the exercise is to prepare their troops, it is not a matter of concern to the Canadian Armed Forces," he said. "If they are close to the border and the intent is to send a message, that would be of concern."

The situation would be far less tense, Eihenbaums said, if Moscow invited NATO, or other international groups, to observe the exercise.

"What we would be happy to see is that our militaries would be able to monitor the situation," he said. "It would make this exercise more transparent, as it should be among neighbours if they are talking about mutual trust."

"Peacekeeping" Mission Must Start With Exit Strategy - Warns CAF

By: Lee Berthiaume, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — Make sure you have a plan to get out before you actually get in.

That is one of the main messages of an internal paper that military officials prepared last summer as they considered the challenges associated with the Liberal governments' promised return to international peacekeeping.

The paper also warns about the need to clearly explain why whatever mission the government chooses is in the national interest and expresses real concerns about the threat posed by terrorism.

The July 2016 paper was prepared by the strategic joint staff, which provides analysis and advice directly to the chief of defence staff, and was obtained by The Canadian Press through the Access to Information Act.

It emerges as the Liberal government continues to dither over where to send up to 600 Canadian peacekeepers, despite pressure from some allies as well as the UN for a decision.

The Liberals had been leaning toward — but have since waffled over — sending troops to the African nation of Mali, where more than 100 peacekeepers have been killed, many in terrorist attacks.

The government won't say when it will choose a mission, or why it is dragging its feet, but the issues and concerns raised in the paper may explain part of the delay.

One is the need to start thinking about an exit strategy even before the first troops arrive.

The paper notes that while countries like Canada often want to make only short-term contributions to UN missions, history has shown that there is often "significant pressure" to stay longer than expected. Canadian soldiers joined a UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus in 1964 and stayed until 1993.

"From the outset of planning, consideration should be given to the sustainment and eventual withdrawal from the (operation)," the paper reads, adding that leaving is often "a delicate mission to execute."

The government was encouraged to essentially line up other countries to step into the breach once Canada's commitment expires — a task that could be easier said than done for a mission like Mali.

Part of the reason Canada has faced international pressure to go into Mali is because some of the European countries already there have had trouble finding replacements.

The paper also says that moral arguments about peacekeeping being the right thing to do aren't a good enough reason for deploying troops on specific missions.

"There is a legitimate moral component to this discussion, namely that Canadian participation … is the right thing for a nation with Canada's good fortune, wealth and means to undertake," the paper says.

"But the discussion must be wider than a moral one in order to define the national interest in more tangible terms and to provide some balance by measuring the risks and rewards."

The Liberals have said expanding Canada's participation in peacekeeping serves the national interest by contributing to a more peaceful and stable world.

But government sources have admitted they must do a better job explaining why the Liberals are intent on peacekeeping — a task that will become even more important once a mission is chosen.

Much of the paper focuses on the new dangers that have crept into peacekeeping, with officials noting that missions "are higher-risk and take place in more complex environments than before."

Special attention is paid to terrorist organizations, which the paper says "pose an undeniable threat in certain locations," especially when it comes to protecting troops and fulfilling a mission's objectives.

This is especially true for UN missions, the paper says, which aren't mandated to conduct counter-terrorism operations.

While Mali isn't mentioned, the findings are particularly relevant to the mission there, as groups such as terrorist groups such as al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb have repeatedly targeted peacekeepers.

Other factors to consider before choosing a mission, the paper says, are whether it is effective or could be made effective and what impact it could have on Canada's international reputation and national security.

"Canadian participation . . . should be grounded in a well-conceived and articulated strategic purpose, delivered via a strategy nested with other Canadian efforts globally," the paper concludes.

"It must reflect the contemporary operating environment, is mandated to have protection of civilians at its heart and should seek to promote responsible burden-sharing within the international community."

CAF "Peacekeeping" Mission Decision is Delayed for Months

By: Bruce Campion-Smith, Toronto Star

OTTAWA—Canada’s high-profile military mission to Africa appears off the radar for now with a decision on a deployment delayed, perhaps until fall, the Star has learned.

Political upheaval among key allies — notably the United States, France and Great Britain — is cited as the reason why Justin Trudeau’s government has pushed back its high-profile pledge to return Canada to international peacekeeping efforts.

The federal government does not want to deploy soldiers on a potentially dangerous mission only to find other nations have decided their priorities lie elsewhere, leaving Canada “stuck with a legacy mission,” one source told the Star.

One official at defence headquarters offered a blunt assessment of where the peace mission currently stood on the list of priorities. “It’s not on the radar,” said the source.

When asked about the delay, officials point to the political shake-ups around the globe, notably in Washington, where the unexpected election of Donald Trump as president and his unpredictable tenure in office so far has forced Ottawa to rethink priorities on issues from defence to trade.

But political change bubbles in other capitals too. Britons go to the polls in a general election in June. France just saw the election of a new president, Emmanuel Macron, who beat out right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen. That country has a significant military mission ongoing in Mali, one nation cited as the likely destination for the Canadian deployment.

At home, other issues are competing for attention. Next week, the Liberal government will unveil its defence policy review that will lay out a new vision for the armed forces and the promise of additional funding to pay for it.

That vision, expected to provide policy guidance for the coming two decades, will almost certainly include a nod to the record of Canadian peacekeeping around the globe. But it’s not expected to include any new details of forthcoming missions.

The government’s attention has also been distracted as the political front as the man tasked to sell that new vision — Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan — is fighting for his credibility after being forced to apologize for inflating his role as an officer during an Afghanistan offensive.

And within defence headquarters, the fallout from the surprise January ouster of Vice-Admiral Mark Norman, the second-in-command of the military is still being felt.

All that means that a decision on a peace support mission is now not expected for months yet. That timing means it could be more than a year since the Liberal government laid out its promise of personnel and funding for a mission — 600 troops, 150 police officers and $450 million over three years for a new Peace and Stability Operations Program.

An announcement on exactly where Canada would deploy those personnel on a peace mission had been expected by last Christmas. But there was no word and nothing yet in the months since.

Trudeau said in March that his government would not be pushed into making a decision, saying that any deployment had to be done “responsibly and thoughtfully.”

But months later, the government seems no closer to a decision.

“I don’t have a timeframe on that,” Sajjan told the Star in a recent interview.

“All I can tell you is we will make that decision as a government when we feel comfortable that we have all the necessary information, that we have a whole of government approach and definitely from the military side, one that is going to have an impact on the ground,” Sajjan said.

He conceded that the changes around the globe were, in part, the reason for prolonged discussions about Canada’s role in a UN mission.

“We do need to look at . . . the changing environment. We have to make sure that when we add in and say we’re going to do ‘X,’ we have to make sure that ‘X’ is actually going to provide added value to the UN,” Sajjan said.

In the January cabinet shake-up that made Chrystia Freeland foreign affairs minister, one of the tasks handed the Toronto MP was to “increase Canada’s support for United Nations peace operations.”

Alex Lawrence, her spokesperson, told the Star that the peace deployment remains under active consideration. “Our government is committed to international peace operations, and we are currently considering what precise role Canada can play,” Lawrence said.

But Canada’s hand could be forced when Sajjan hosts an international summit on peacekeeping at the end of the year.

Sajjan used last year’s summit in London to herald the willingness of the Liberal government to reengage in peace missions, declaring that, “Canada is committed to leading international efforts in peace support operations.

“Conflicts today are more complex than ever before and we’re serious about being part of the solution — that’s the reason we’re bringing our resources and skills to the table,” Sajjan said in a statement issued for the 2016 summit.

It could be awkward for the Liberal government to go into this year’s summit with nothing to show for the statements it made more than a year earlier.

Defence analyst Dave Perry says the delay in deciding a mission has already likely forced military officers and diplomats back to the drawing boards to update the proposals they first presented to the government.

“I would imagine given how long it has taken since some of those initial inputs were provided that revisiting some plans because events and things on the ground have changed significantly would be part of the delay now,” said Perry, a senior analyst with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

“Some of the plans would have been submitted a half year ago. Hard to think they would still be viable today,” he said in an interview.

Op-LENTUS 17-03 Flood Support Update

DND Report:

A total of approximately 2200 CAF personnel have been deployed to support Quebec citizens in the four affected regions: Montérégie, Outaouais, Mauricie and Montréal. Troops, along with aviation assets, engineer assets, and 12 boats from the Naval Reserve, are in place to support and react to the needs identified.

Timeline:
May 5, 2017: Within one hour of Public Safety receiving a request for assistance, the CAF sent liaison officers and reconnaissance elements to four regional coordination centres. There they met with provincial partners to determine how the CAF could help.

May 6, 2017: An immediate response unit of 400 military personnel departed CFB Valcartier to begin assisting in the four affected regions. The CAF also sent additional personnel to the regional coordination centres to pave the way for additional waves of troops preparing to leave Valcartier.
May 7, 2017: Hundreds more troops departed Valcartier. Total troop strength reached approximately 1650 spread out over the four affected regions.

May 8, 2017: The CAF put additional troops and equipment on standby to help if needed. These consisted of about 470 personnel from 31, 32, and 33 Canadian Brigade Group Domestic Response Companies, plus a Composite Reserve Engineer Squadron.

May 9, 2017: By this date, approximately 1830 military personnel were supporting flood relief.

May 10, 2017: The approximately 470 personnel that were on standby moved into affected areas and began assisting in flood relief. These troops are from 31, 32, and 33 Canadian Brigade Group Domestic Response Companies, plus a Composite Reserve Engineer Squadron. By the end of the day on May 10, 2017, approximately 2200 military personnel were supporting Operation LENTUS. More troops are now deployed for the operation in Quebec than the rest of all Canadian Armed Forces operations around the world combined.

There are currently seven RCAF helicopters deployed on #OpLentus -
one CH-147F Chinook from 450 Tactical Helicopter Squadron from Petawawa and six CH-146 Griffons (four from 430 Tactical Helicopter Squadron from Valcartier and one from each 438 Tactical Helicopter Squadron from St. Hubert and 439 Combat Support Squadron from Bagovtille).

As of May 10, 30 sorties have been flown, including two sorties by the Chinook, which did a sandbag resupply to Berthierville, Quebec.

May 11, 2017: HMCS Montréal arrived in Trois-Rivières. Approximately 160 personnel of the ship’s company will join the CAF troops already on the ground to support the citizens in this affected area. HMCS Montréal was originally anticipated to arrive in its namesake city this week to celebrate the 375th Anniversary of the City of Montreal.

The CAF is helping the civil and municipal security teams already on the ground by conducting tasks such as:

distributing and filling sandbags to help solidify existing structures and protect critical infrastructure
using military vehicles to help the civil authorities to maintain traffic on critical arteries and help evacuate citizens to safe areas patrolling to monitor critical infrastructure and safety of citizens
reinforcing dikes and walls to protect critical infrastructure such as water treatment plants and bridges

The CAF is also ready to support civilian partners such as the Canadian Red Cross in the supply of shelters.

RCAF Helicopter Rescues 3 Men from Boat off N.B. Coast

FILE: Search and rescue technicians are hoisted by a Cormorant helicopter during a Canada-United States coast guard ceremony in Halifax

By:Alexander Quon, Global News 

Three men were rescued by a Royal Canadian Air Force helicopter early Monday morning after their fishing boat ran aground and began to take on water in Miramichi Bay

The call went out to members of the Joint Task Force Atlantic (JTFA) at 11:30 p.m. on Sunday.

A Cormorant helicopter was then dispatched from the Royal Canadian Air Force’s base in Greenwood, N.S.

According to Alex Roy, a JTFA spokesperson, three people were on board the fishing vessel.

“The three were hoisted on board [the helicopter] and transported to Neguac, N.B. where RCMP and Emergency Health Services were waiting,” said Roy.

Roy did not have information on the status of the three rescued individuals.