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Showing posts with label Baltic States. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baltic States. Show all posts

Friday, June 17, 2016

NATO chief makes personal pitch for Canada to join Baltic force

CBC EXCLUSIVE: 

By: Murray Brewster, CBC News 

While Canada is facing a lot of international arm-twisting to join a NATO brigade destined for Eastern Europe, sources are telling CBC News the Trudeau government is hesitating over concerns participation could detract from future peacekeeping missions.

The military alliance's top official, Jens Stoltenberg, said it's imperative Western nations respond to "a more dangerous security environment" involving Russia in Eastern Europe.

"I'm glad to see Canada is among several NATO allies which are considering to contribute to this forward presence," Stoltenberg, said in an exclusive interview on CBC News Network's Power & Politics on Thursday.
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He noted that Ottawa has already supplied CF-18 fighter jets for Baltic air policing, a frigate as part of NATO's standing force patrolling the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, as well as a company of soldiers for training exercises in Poland.

"We are very grateful for the contributions from Canada, which we [have] already received, but we would welcome even more," Stoltenberg told CBC.

In the aftermath of Russia's annexation of Crimea two years ago, NATO leaders agreed to expand their multinational rapid reaction force to include up to 40,000 troops, who would be on notice to move within a week of a crisis. They also announced plans to create an ultra-mobile brigade of 4,000 soldiers that could get to trouble spots within a couple of days.

Canada was recently asked to provide troops and lead one of the four battalions that make up the contingent, but the Trudeau government has yet to formally sign off on the proposal.

The soldiers would likely be stationed in the Baltic, but other Eastern European nations have apparently indicated their willingness to host the brigade.
Personal pitch

Stoltenberg made a personal pitch to Canadian Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan in a telephone call last week, according to the sources who have knowledge of the file, but could not speak publicly because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The proposal, which has apparently been endorsed by Sajjan, was up for discussion at a cabinet sub-committee but has not been given the government's full blessing.

Concern seems to revolve around the Liberal promise in the last election to put more emphasis on peacekeeping.

Behind closed doors, the suggestion is that tying the army into a NATO engagement involving several hundred troops might prevent the government from taking on a potential United Nations mission in French West Africa.

The sources said senior military commanders have indicated they can do both and that involvement with NATO would only last up to nine months.

The army already has one company of soldiers — just over 150 — training in Eastern Europe and the thinking is it would not be too hard to add an additional company and a headquarters unit.

Despite that, skepticism remains on the political side with some pointing out the last time the alliance asked for a short-term commitment (in Kandahar), it turned into a five-year combat mission, with an additional 2½-year training detachment in Kabul.
Caution justified

The political apprehension is well founded, said Steve Saideman, an international affairs professor at Ottawa's Carleton University.

"Anybody who is saying this is temporary is missing the boat," said Saideman, an expert on NATO.

By creating the brigade, NATO's intention is to establish a "persistent" presence in Eastern Europe in order to hold Russia at bay. It is reassuring jittery allies, many of them new members of the alliance and former East Bloc countries.

Whatever countries agree to in the coming weeks, it should be understood it will be for the "foreseeable future," he said.

Saideman also added that the Liberal government put a lot of emphasis in last fall's election on winning a UN Security Council seat and a commitment to NATO "doesn't move the needle" on that endeavour.

The final troop commitments will be revealed at the upcoming leaders summit in Warsaw, Stoltenberg said.

"This is a very strong and firm response, but it is also a measured response. We don't want a new Cold War. We don't want to provoke a conflict, but we want to prevent the conflict. That's exactly what we are doing."
Defence spending

Under the Harper government, Canada came in for a tongue-lashing on the issue of defence spending. Following the Afghan war, the budget for National Defence was trimmed — leaving the country spending approximately one per cent of its gross domestic product on the military — or about half the NATO benchmark.

"I've told Canada the same as I've told all other allies, who are spending less than two per cent. We have to stop the cuts and we gradually have to increase the defence spending," Stoltenberg told CBC News.

"Canada has actually stopped the cuts and I welcome that very much."
Follow @Murray_Brewster on Twitter.


 

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Canada considering European troop commitment

By: Murray Brewster, CBC News 

Putin 'is modernizing conventional military capability on a large scale'

CSIS warns Russia is 'mobilizing for war'

The Trudeau government is considering a request to commit hundreds of troops to eastern Europe and take part command of a new NATO force being assembled to deter Russian aggression.

Canada's participation in the Baltic operation was discussed Tuesday by the military alliance's defence ministers, including Canada's Harjit Sajjan, at a meeting in Brussels.

This comes just days after the Canadian Security Intelligence Service quietly released an open-sourced global security analysis warning, among other things, that the hard-line policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin are becoming more deeply entrenched and that Moscow is retooling its military for a fight.

The U.S., Britain and Germany publicly committed to the force on Tuesday, but federal sources said that while Canada has not yet made a decision, an answer could come soon and that Canada "supports what NATO is doing in the region."

Troops from Canada's 3rd Division participate at a NATO-led exercise with the U.S. Army's 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team and Poland's 6th Airborne Brigade. Canada is considering a request to supply troops for a new NATO force in the Baltics.
Troops from Canada's 3rd Division participate at a NATO-led exercise with the U.S. Army's 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team and Poland's 6th Airborne Brigade. Canada is considering a request to supply troops for a new NATO force in the Baltics. (Kacper Pempel/Reuters)
Related:
NATO vs. Putin sabre-rattling raises Cold War concerns
Crimean leader urges strong sanctions against Russia

Up to 4,000 troops are envisioned for the force, but the number coming from Canada, along with the type of equipment and vehicles that would be involved, is still being assessed.

The federal cabinet is expected to meet again on Wednesday but it is unclear whether the NATO request is on the agenda.

At the moment, just under 200 Canadian troops are involved in a massive drill — Exercise Anakonda — alongside Polish, Turkish and American forces near a base in Poland.

The Harper government committed Canada to a regular rotation of ground forces for exercises under the NATO's Operation Reassurancebanner following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

But the new proposal goes a step further with the creation of four battalions, which would rotate through bases in eastern Europe and the Baltics, and be on standby for emergencies.

The contingent would be backed by NATO's highly mobile, 40,000-strong rapid reaction force.
Baltic states could be overrun

Federal sources said Tuesday that it's not been decided where Canadian troops might be based, although published reports in Europe, quoting diplomatic sources, offered up two possible locations Poland or Latvia.

The Rand Corporation, a non-partisan U.S. think-tank, released a report last winter suggesting the proposed NATO force would simply be a speed bump for the Russian army should fighting take place. It said the Baltic states — Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania — could conceivably be overrun with 60 hours unless the West was willing to station several, heavily armoured brigades in the tiny nations.

Even before the contingent is finalized, political leaders in the Baltics have privately complained it is too small, according to published reports in Europe.

The request by NATO and the U.S. to fill one of the four slots took some in Ottawa by surprise, where the notion wasn't on the radar as little as two months ago, said one source with knowledge of the file.

It is expected the government will signal its intentions before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau goes to the NATO leaders summit in Warsaw next month.

The potential commitment is unfolding against the backdrop of an increasingly unpredictable Russian regime, said a security analysis released last week by the Canada's spy agency.
Russia 'mobilizing for war'

The report is a distillation of open source academic research and evaluations and not based on internal CSIS assessments.

It does however use stark language, and warned decision-makers not to treat Putin's rearmament drive lightly.

"Russia is not modernizing its military primarily to extend its capacity to pursue hybrid warfare," the 104 page report said, referring to the Kremlin's use of irregular tactics to take over Crimea. "It is modernizing conventional military capability on a large scale; the state is mobilizing for war."

The West has primarily responded to the annexation and Moscow's support of separatists in eastern Ukraine with economic sanctions.

The prevailing wisdom is that fiscal pain will bring Putin around, but the report dismissed that notion, saying two years after war erupted in Ukraine, the Kremlin "appears to be coherent, durable and united" at the centre.

"Western assessments that Russia is vulnerable to economic collapse and disruptive internal discontent are exaggerated," said the assessment, titled 2018 Security Outlook.

"Russia is adapting to adversity; the economy is deliberately tilted to security rather than economic freedom."
Polish president wants more Canadian troops