CAF Working to Iron Out Challenges Ahead of Latvia Deployment

By: Murray Brewster, CBC News 

Some NATO allies are calling it "Noah's Ark."

The description of the Canadian-led battle group being assembled in Latvia this summer is more than just a cheeky reference to the disparate collection of nations that make up the force of 1,500 heavily-armoured troops.

It underlines some of the very real challenges military planners face, including how much intelligence data Canadians can share with their partners on the ground and what restrictions — known as caveats — the other nations will impose on the use of their troops.

The constraints some European NATO members placed on their soldiers during the Afghan war, notably forbidding them from operating in southern provinces where the Taliban were present, were a major source of tension among the allies.

Nations operating alongside Canada in Latvia will also be coming with caveats, some of which have raised eyebrows at alliance headquarters in Brussels, said defence officials, who were only authorized to only speak with the media on background.

They would not be specific about the restrictions, other than to say officials are working through the matter.

The Trudeau government agreed to the open-ended deployment at last summer's NATO summit in Warsaw, where the western military alliance announced it would place four battalion-sized formations in the three Baltic States and eastern Europe to act as deterrent against a resurgent Russia.
Diverse team
Canada will deploy 450 soldiers, including a headquarters team and a company of infantry soldiers driving the army's new (light armoured vehicle) LAV 6 fighting vehicle, a larger more powerful version of the troop carrier used in Afghanistan. They will be joined by: A troop of tanks from Poland; Two companies of mechanized soldiers travelling in armoured vehicles — one each from Spain and Italy; and infantry soldiers from Slovenia, Albania and Latvia.

"We are certainly recognized as taking on a diverse team," said Brig.-Simon Hetherington, commander of the 3rd Canadian Division, which is training the first rotation of Canadians for deployment in a few weeks.

One of the important preoccupations for commanders will be deciding what intelligence can and cannot be shared.

"Nobody is in the Five-Eyes there so we've got to be careful about what we do there in that regard," said Hetherington, referring to the long-standing intelligence-sharing network among Canada, the U.S., Britain, Australia and New Zealand.

It's not your grandfather's Cold War, Canadian and NATO officials insist

What also makes this deployment different is the cyber threat posed by Russia and the expectation that so-called fake news will be used to drive a wedge between the NATO troops and the Latvian population.

To that end, Hetherington says soldiers are being schooled and reminded to be careful what they post online and where they post it.

"We need to educate our soldiers. What do they say on social media? How do they say it? That's a direct link to the cyber threat," he said.
Cyber vs. 'fake news'

Karlis Eihenbaums, Latvia's ambassador to Canada, says public opinion in his country overwhelmingly supports the NATO deployment.

His country has not faced the same kind of cyberattacks as neighbouring Estonia, but has struggled against disinformation campaigns.

A military unit from Canada marches during a 2014 military parade marking Polish Armed Forces Day, in Warsaw, Poland, where Canadian soldiers were taking part in military exercises. Canada is preparing to lead a multinational battle group in Latvia that will include Polish tanks, as part of NATO's deterrence measures against Russia. (Czarek Sokolowski/AP Photo)

"What is good is our Western allies understand the urgency to do something about this," he said.

There are other more pedantic details for the Canadian-led force to consider.

"The language issue: That's always a challenge, particularly at the junior level," Hetherington told CBC News in an interview. "Our Polish isn't that good and I doubt the young (non-commissioned officer) from Poland's English is going to be that great."

Mechanics is another issue: "How do we communicate? We've all got different radio sets, different comms systems, digital and analogue. We have to work through that."
Tripwire battalions

A study by the Rand Corporation, a U.S.-based think-tank, estimated it would take less than 60 hours for Russian troops to overrun Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania in the event of a full-blown crisis.

The NATO battalions have been loosely described as a "tripwire" to guard against any interference similar to what to has unfolded in Ukraine over the last three years.

Troops from the U.S. Army's 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team parachute from a Boeing C-17 Globemaster III during a NATO-led exercise in May 2014 that including parachuting, airborne operations and infantry skills. (Kacper Pempel/Reuters)

The sobering scenarios are on the minds of soldiers, particularly as tensions with Moscow remain high in the aftermath of allegations of tampering in the U.S. election.

"We need to be prepared for the worst case," said Hetherington.

"This is about showing the solidarity of our alliance. The willingness of Canada to be prepared to defend one of NATO's allies."

In theory, the battle groups would be expected to hold out until NATO could muster its high-readiness rapid reaction force — something that could take days.

Privately, Latvian officials don't believe help would arrive in time, an assessment Hetherington, as a professional military officer, shares.

"It would be over very quickly," he said.

"Are we a tripwire? I've never liked that term. We are a show of assurance. We are a show of deterrence. We hope that everything, like every other war that's happened out there; that diplomacy and other means of national power are going to be the way we avoid the worst case scenario."

Ukraine Looks to Canada to Help Modernize Military's 'Soviet Mentality'

By: Evan Dyer, CBC News 

As the war in Eastern Ukraine grinds on, away from the international headlines, the country's Soviet-era military is struggling to suppress separatist forces backed by a modern, well-resourced Russian machine.

And it is looking to Canada for help.

Canadian military instructors and Ukrainian servicemen take part in a military exercise at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center in Yavoriv, Ukraine in this July 2016 file photo. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)

Both sides in the three-year-old conflict blithely ignore commitments made under the Minsk agreement — the ceasefire plan signed in early 2015 — to keep heavy weapons out of the conflict zone.

The Ukrainians, worried by U.S. President Donald Trump's closeness to Russia and his talk of accepting the annexation of Crimea, have been manoeuvring to win back some areas where they had agreed to remain out.

The combined Russian-separatist side has also upped the tempo of its rocketing and shelling, and still tends to be more effective in using those weapons, thanks to superior command, control and communications.

The Ukrainian side, meanwhile, continues to closely resemble its Soviet predecessor with outmoded uniforms, equipment, organization and training.

Russia's armed forces have been through years of rapid modernization. The effects can be seen among the separatist forces of Luhansk and Donetsk, which include thousands of Russian soldiers nominally fighting as "volunteers" of Novorossiya or "New Russia."

A member of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic forces inspects a building, damaged during battles with Ukrainian armed forces in Donetsk. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

The result is a conflict that sometimes resembles the Russian Army of today fighting the Russian Army of 25 years ago — the one that suffered defeat in Afghanistan and the first Chechen War.

But Ukraine and its Western allies, including Canada, are determined to change that dynamic.

'DRAB' to the rescue

Jill Sinclair, a former assistant deputy minister of defence who once led the Canadian government's efforts to ban landmines, now holds Canada's seat on a panel designed to bring the Ukrainian armed forces into the 21st century.

Ukraine's Defence Reform Advisory Board (DRAB) is charged with steering the Ukrainian military through a crash transformation even as it fights a low-level war against a far-stronger neighbour.

She likens the task to "changing the wheels on a bicycle while the bicycle is moving."

Her co-chairs are a trio of retired generals: former U.S. Centcom commander John Abizaid; the U.K.'s Sir Nick Parker; and Jonas Andriskevicius, former commander of Lithuania's armed forces.

Sinclair says there's currently "a Soviet mentality" in the Ukrainian armed forces and Defence Ministry. "The Ukrainians would be the first to say that."

While the Russian military underwent dramatic upgrades under Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's military stagnated from independence in the early 1990s, through to the outbreak of hostilities in 2014.

Outclassed on the battlefield

For Ukraine, the war in the east began with crushing defeats. First at Ilovaisk in summer of 2014, then again at Debaltseve six months later, Ukrainian units were first encircled, then decimated by Russian artillery.

The battles showcased new Russian tactics that combined drone and satellite reconnaissance with modern communications and targeting, to produce devastatingly accurate and concentrated barrages.
Renewed fighting in Ukraine pushes town to brink of catastrophe

Survivors who straggled back to Ukrainian lines brought tales of incompetent commanders, confused orders, chaotic supply lines and abandonment by Kyiv.

It all led to a commission of inquiry, where those recriminations were aired publicly. The inquiry estimated that 1,000 soldiers died at Ilovaisk alone.

Ukrainian forces have never recovered the territory lost in those battles. But the debacle brought home the need for reform. "They really hit the reset button three years ago," says Sinclair.

She says the Ukrainians turned to their allies in the West to ask: "How are they going to position themselves so they're not constantly being bested by the other side?

"They want to move, by the end of 2018, to a civilian Ministry of Defence, and by 2020 to full civilian control of the armed forces," she says. "They also want to get to full interoperability with NATO by 2020."

That last goal is a monumental challenge for a military that still depends almost entirely on Warsaw Pact equipment.

But Ukraine's state defence conglomerate, Ukroboronprom, has already begun production of a licensed version of the American M16 assault rifle, which will ultimately replace the Russian-made Kalashnikov designs currently used, allowing Ukrainian forces to use NATO small arms ammunition.

Canadian companies are also finding plenty of opportunity as Ukraine retools its defence industry. Pratt & Whitney Canada, Esterline/CMC Electronics, IMP Aerospace, and L-3 Wescam all have joint projects with Ukroboronprom.

Training mission wrapping up?

Ukraine's foreign advisers are looking beyond the current conflict, Sinclair says.

"Canada's starting point is Ukraine's stated goal of joining the Euro-Atlantic family," she says, adding that Canada's training mission at Yavoriv, in western Ukraine, is focused on overall modernization and professionalisation.

"We're never sitting down with the Ukrainians and saying, 'How do we help you to defeat the Russians?'," she says. "We are looking at the long haul, but of course in the meantime, people are being deployed [to the front lines]."

The effects of that training can be seen in those eastern battlegrounds, Sinclair says. "The last 24 months or so, they've been holding their own a lot better."

As of this month, more than 3,000 Ukrainians had completed courses given by Canadian Armed Forces trainers, mostly either small-team infantry training or explosive ordnance training.

Canada's training countering improvised explosive devices, Sinclair says, has been a lifesaver for Ukrainian troops.

But Canada's training mission is set to end on March 31, and the Trudeau government has yet to say whether it will be renewed. Donations of free equipment to Ukraine have essentially dried up since the Harper government delivered several shipments of non-lethal assistance in the winter of 2014-15.

Profiteers and freebooters

Meantime, the internal battles in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry are focused on corruption and militias — two perennial issues that the country is finally determined to tackle, Sinclair says.

"You can't look at defence reform without looking at the militias," she says of the powerful paramilitary brigades that operate — at least nominally — under the control of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Some of the militias, including the Azov Regiment and Right Sector, are given to displaying far-right and even neo-Nazi symbols that have embarrassed the government and provided ammunition for Russian propaganda. But the Ukrainian government is also painfully aware that their rush to the front lines may have saved the Ukrainian military from total collapse in the war's disastrous early days.

Ukraine's foreign advisers are looking beyond the current conflict in the east, hoping for a modernized military that will be under civilian control by 2020. (Oleksandr Klymenko/Reuters)

Some of the brigades answer to individual Ukrainian oligarchs who recruited them and paid to equip them as patriotic gestures; their obedience to central command is questionable.

"They have been playing fast and loose. Does the Ukrainian government have its arms around all of that?" asks Sinclair. "Donor countries want to see more order and more cohesion."

As for corruption, the bane of Ukraine's recent governments, profiteers who sought to get rich from the war, are finally being driven out, Sinclair says.

"Previously, somebody's brother was getting the contract to feed the troops. Now it's a German company with full transparency."

Canada set to Renew OP UNIFIER in Ukraine

By: ROBERT FIFE AND MARK MACKINNON, The Globe and Mail 

Canada is set to renew a military mission training Ukrainian troops to confront Russia-backed separatists in the east of Ukraine, despite concerns in Kiev over delays in announcing the extension of the program.

The Trudeau cabinet has not yet announced the extension of the two-year-old non-combat mission, dubbed Operation Unifier, which expires on March 31. The silence has sparked worries in Kiev, where the Ukrainian government is anxious for Western reassurance following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed interest in striking some kind of bargain with Russian President Vladimir Putin that could include lowering U.S. sanctions imposed over Moscow’s role in Ukraine.

“The longer it takes to [extend] the mission, the more our concern is rising,” Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Vadym Prystaiko, told The Globe and Mail in an interview at his office in Kiev.

But a senior Canadian government official said Ukraine didn’t need to worry about the future of Operation Unifier, which has seen a rotating contingent of 200 Canadian troops train more than 3,100 Ukrainian soldiers since arriving in the country two years ago.

“Canada understands that Ukraine, and everybody who is a stakeholder and supporter, really wants mission renewal,” the senior official said. “There is nothing unique about going through a mission renewal process and there is absolutely nothing unique about how this one is being done. It is a routine renewal from a government that has been making positive signs.”

Mr. Prystaiko said Ukraine was broadly concerned by the Liberal government’s efforts to rebuild relations between Ottawa and Moscow, which were in a deep freeze under former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, who famously told Mr. Putin to his face that he needed to “get out of Ukraine.”

The efforts of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to restart contacts with Russia via forums such as the Arctic Council have rung alarm bells in Kiev, which is concerned that Canada’s previously unwavering support for Ukraine may be weakening.

“Each and every thing – even if it’s not connected [to the war in Ukraine] – will be used by Russia back home to say, ‘Look, these bloody Westerners, they realize they were wrong, they are looking for ways to reconnect with us,’” Mr. Prystaiko said.

But the senior Canadian government official noted that as recently as Friday, Chief of the Defence Staff General Jonathan Vance reiterated Canada’s support for Ukraine at a conference in Ottawa. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has also repeatedly expressed Canada’s support for Ukraine, as has Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Ms. Freeland, in particular, is seen in Kiev and Moscow as a staunch backer of Ukraine, having opposed many of her predecessor Stéphane Dion’s efforts to reach out to Russia during his 14-month stint as foreign minister. Ms. Freeland is among 13 Canadians who are barred from entering Russia under sanctions imposed by Moscow in retaliation for Canada’s own measures targeting Russian and Ukrainian politicians over the annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine’s Donbass.

Canada, Britain and the United States have had military trainers in Ukraine since the summer of 2015, arriving one year after Moscow – furious over a pro-Western revolution in Kiev – annexed the Crimean Peninsula and helped stir up a separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

More than 10,000 people have been killed in three years of fighting, which has spiked again in recent weeks after a relative lull during the second half of 2016. Alexander Hug, deputy head of a monitoring mission deployed by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, told The Globe and Mail that the situation around the front line is currently “very unstable” and that a serious escalation is possible.

While Russia has helped the separatists build a formidable army – the self-declared “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk are estimated to possess some 700 tanks, more than the combined German, French and Italian armies – Ukraine has been reliant on Western military training and other non-lethal aid to help it combat a foe that at times has had the support of regular Russian soldiers.

In addition to basic infantry tactics, the Canadian troops taking part in Operation Unifier have given crash courses to Ukrainian soldiers in subjects ranging from combat first aid to the handling and disposal of explosives.

The training is done at a former Soviet military base in the western Ukrainian town of Yavoriv, some 1,200 kilometres from the front line. The current rotation of Canadian troops are drawn primarily from the 3rd Canadian Division, while 200 members of the 1st Battalion of Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry are currently training in Edmonton for an expected March 1 deployment.

Britain announced in January that it would renew its own training mission in Ukraine. U.S. military trainers are committed until 2020.

The recent surge in fighting around Donetsk and Lugansk comes amid confusion about the depth of U.S. political support for Ukraine under the new Trump administration.

Russia, meanwhile, hasn’t wavered in its backing of the separatists. Mr. Putin announced on Saturday that his government would begin recognizing passports and other documents issued by the Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics.”

The move was condemned as “alarming” by the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, but the Ukrainian government is worried by the lack of public support from Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly said he wants to see a better relationship between Washington and Moscow. The Kremlin, in turn, has been forced to repeatedly deny accusations it aided Mr. Trump’s run to the White House by hacking e-mail accounts and spreading disinformation.

Canada considering European troop commitment

By: Murray Brewster, CBC News 

Putin 'is modernizing conventional military capability on a large scale'

CSIS warns Russia is 'mobilizing for war'

The Trudeau government is considering a request to commit hundreds of troops to eastern Europe and take part command of a new NATO force being assembled to deter Russian aggression.

Canada's participation in the Baltic operation was discussed Tuesday by the military alliance's defence ministers, including Canada's Harjit Sajjan, at a meeting in Brussels.

This comes just days after the Canadian Security Intelligence Service quietly released an open-sourced global security analysis warning, among other things, that the hard-line policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin are becoming more deeply entrenched and that Moscow is retooling its military for a fight.

The U.S., Britain and Germany publicly committed to the force on Tuesday, but federal sources said that while Canada has not yet made a decision, an answer could come soon and that Canada "supports what NATO is doing in the region."

Troops from Canada's 3rd Division participate at a NATO-led exercise with the U.S. Army's 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team and Poland's 6th Airborne Brigade. Canada is considering a request to supply troops for a new NATO force in the Baltics. (Kacper Pempel/Reuters)

Related:

NATO vs. Putin sabre-rattling raises Cold War concerns
Crimean leader urges strong sanctions against Russia

Up to 4,000 troops are envisioned for the force, but the number coming from Canada, along with the type of equipment and vehicles that would be involved, is still being assessed.

The federal cabinet is expected to meet again on Wednesday but it is unclear whether the NATO request is on the agenda.

At the moment, just under 200 Canadian troops are involved in a massive drill — Exercise Anakonda — alongside Polish, Turkish and American forces near a base in Poland.

The Harper government committed Canada to a regular rotation of ground forces for exercises under the NATO's Operation Reassurancebanner following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

But the new proposal goes a step further with the creation of four battalions, which would rotate through bases in eastern Europe and the Baltics, and be on standby for emergencies.

The contingent would be backed by NATO's highly mobile, 40,000-strong rapid reaction force.
Baltic states could be overrun

Federal sources said Tuesday that it's not been decided where Canadian troops might be based, although published reports in Europe, quoting diplomatic sources, offered up two possible locations Poland or Latvia.

The Rand Corporation, a non-partisan U.S. think-tank, released a report last winter suggesting the proposed NATO force would simply be a speed bump for the Russian army should fighting take place. It said the Baltic states — Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania — could conceivably be overrun with 60 hours unless the West was willing to station several, heavily armoured brigades in the tiny nations.

Even before the contingent is finalized, political leaders in the Baltics have privately complained it is too small, according to published reports in Europe.

The request by NATO and the U.S. to fill one of the four slots took some in Ottawa by surprise, where the notion wasn't on the radar as little as two months ago, said one source with knowledge of the file.

It is expected the government will signal its intentions before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau goes to the NATO leaders summit in Warsaw next month.

The potential commitment is unfolding against the backdrop of an increasingly unpredictable Russian regime, said a security analysis released last week by the Canada's spy agency.
Russia 'mobilizing for war'

The report is a distillation of open source academic research and evaluations and not based on internal CSIS assessments.

It does however use stark language, and warned decision-makers not to treat Putin's rearmament drive lightly.

"Russia is not modernizing its military primarily to extend its capacity to pursue hybrid warfare," the 104 page report said, referring to the Kremlin's use of irregular tactics to take over Crimea. "It is modernizing conventional military capability on a large scale; the state is mobilizing for war."

The West has primarily responded to the annexation and Moscow's support of separatists in eastern Ukraine with economic sanctions.

The prevailing wisdom is that fiscal pain will bring Putin around, but the report dismissed that notion, saying two years after war erupted in Ukraine, the Kremlin "appears to be coherent, durable and united" at the centre.

"Western assessments that Russia is vulnerable to economic collapse and disruptive internal discontent are exaggerated," said the assessment, titled 2018 Security Outlook.

"Russia is adapting to adversity; the economy is deliberately tilted to security rather than economic freedom."
Polish president wants more Canadian troops

NORAD Jets Practising Interceptions in Arctic

U.S Army File Photo: An RCAF CF-18 escorts a Russian Tu-95 Bear Bomber out of Canadian airspace (Undated Photo)

As part of Exercise  AMALGAM DART taking place in the Arctic region between Canada and the United States, NORAD Jets will be practising intercepting foreign aircraft in the Northern regions of North America.

This training is a response to the increased Russian presence in the Arctic region - at its highest levels since the Cold War.

According to U.S. reports, Russian aircraft approached North American airspace 17 times in 2014. That includes Russian bombers, tankers, and fighter jets. Its not just the number of flights, but where they are flying.

The increase in numbers in 2014 is attributed to the West's strong stance on the Russian aggression in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Similar increases are being seen in Northern Europe, including Russian bombers flying through the English Channel late last year.

More than 300 personnel, and 15 NORAD aircraft are participating in Exercise AMALGAM DART, in Alaska, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut.