Smol: Canada is Weak in the Arctic

By: Robert Smol, CBC Opinions 

Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent boast of possessing an arsenal of undetectable nuclear weapons has not really had material effect on geo-political relations — yet. North American and European preoccupation of late has been less on Russia's military procurement than on the acute issue of the nerve agent attack on an ex-spy in the U.K.

On Monday, Canada and the U.S. both announced it would be expelling diplomats from its borders in response to the attack.

But despite this recent action, this country continues to bask in that ever-so-Canadian sense of delusion when it comes to understanding our place in a potential future Russian-American standoff. And while I do not want to sound like those old-fashioned "Russians are Coming" harbingers of hype, it is important that we take careful stock of our strategic military options in the case of a superpower spat — or worse.

For starters, the notion of a neutral, peaceful demilitarized Canada is a delusion. Whether we like it or not, Canada is perfectly placed to be the battleground of choice in a future conflict: we share a long and long-disputed Arctic border with an increasingly militaristic and hostile superpower.

Largely unpopulated, open and scantily defended, Canada's Arctic is the safest and shortest line of attack and counterattack in a potential conflict. To think that Russians, North Koreans or Americans will decide, out of courtesy, to hang a detour around the second-largest country in the world is dangerously naïve and irresponsible. And the United States will not necessarily protect Canada in the case of a ballistic missile attack, as Canada's senior officer in Norad reminded us last year.

We know that Russia is rather unabashedly building up its military presence in the Arctic. There are at least 18 recently constructed or upgraded Russian military bases along the Russian-Canadian Arctic border, along with its sizeable air force, nuclear submarines and 40 operational icebreakers with more under construction.

In terms of Canadian military assets in the region, we maintain a small signals intelligence facility on Ellesmere Island (CFS Alert), which is manned by approximately 60 personnel — not all of whom are serving military. In Yellowknife, Joint Task Force North maintains a small headquarters staff of approximately 70 personnel, with an area support unit of 50.
Boots in the snow

The Royal Canadian Air Force is represented in the region by a non-combat utility transport squadron flying four small CC-138 Twin Otter aircraft that came into operation around the time our prime minister was born. And apart from the southern Canada-based soldiers who occasionally stick their heads into the Arctic for short exercises, there is no permanent "boots in the snow" combat establishment ready to deal with a violation of our territory.

Meanwhile, the closest thing to a ground force on the Canadian side consists of a series of patrols of minimally trained reserve auxiliaries, The Canadian Rangers, who each receive all of 10 days training and are still carrying vintage World War II rifles.

Our government might try to assure us that the Arctic Offshore Patrol Ship project, which is currently under construction, will provide a deterrent to possible Russian aggression. But the minimal armament for these boats will place these ships in a "constabulary role," according to the Royal Canadian Navy. Translation: they are not going into battle.

The hull assembly of Canada's first AOPS. This ship is not going into battle, writes Robert Smol. (Andrew Vaughan/Canadian Press)

We might tell ourselves that the specially trained Russian soldiers, warships and fighter bomber aircraft that are now rigorously training on bases such as Sredny Ostrov, Alexandra Land and Nagurskoye near ourdisputed northern border have no nefarious intentions, at least when it comes to Canada. But they are there, armed and ready, on our disputed border. So the question is: what are their intentions?

Just how much longer can we pretend that our strategically important and resource-rich Arctic will remain secure? Can we really afford to delude ourselves into thinking that our projection of ourselves as a "peacekeeping nation" will be enough for the superpowers to both respect Canada's claims to the Arctic and sidestep our territory in the event of war?

As time goes on, and other nations continue to stake their claim on the Arctic, the answer may soon not be ours to make.

Robert Smol served over 20 years in the Canadian Armed Forces. He is currently a teacher and freelance writer in Toronto.

This column is part of CBC's Opinion section. For more information about this section, please read this editor's blog and our FAQ.

Canadian Howitzers Headed to Latvia

By: David Pugliese, Defence Watch

The Canadian Forces is sending 100 additional military personnel, equipment, and support vehicles to Latvia to support the military exercises of US Army Europe, NATO’s EFP battlegroup in Latvia, and other NATO allies. The deployment is for a limited time.

Gunners fire two M-777 155 mm guns during an exercise at CFB Wainwright, Alberta.  CPL SIMON DUCHESNE

The Canadian Army is sending an artillery battery made up of four M777 Howitzer guns and approximately 100 additional personnel to support training, the Canadian Forces announced Tuesday. When not required for training, the equipment will be stored in the Canadian compound at Camp Ādaži, Latvia, and the artillery personnel will return to Canada, according to the Canadian Forces. The artillery battery will provide indirect fire during major training events including Exercise SILVER ARROW, a Latvian-led NATO exercise in October 2017.

The artillery battery and support personnel are from the 1st Regiment, Royal Canadian Horse Artillery, garrisoned at Canadian Forces Base Shilo, Manitoba.

CAF Lands in Latvia as part of NATO Mission

CTV News Online

With a report from CTV News’ Mercedes Stephenson

Canadian soldiers have landed in Latvia as part of Operation Reassurance -- a multinational NATO mission aimed not at starting a conflict, but at discouraging Russian aggression in the region.

Nearly 100 Edmonton-based troops arrived in the Latvian capital of Riga on Saturday, eager to get to work after their long flight.

“We’ve been training a long time,” one Canadian soldier told CTV News. “We want to be here and Latvia wants us here and so we are happy to be here.”

In total, Canada is deploying 450 troops to lead a battlegroup comprised of soldiers from five other NATO countries: Italy, Spain, Poland, Slovenia and Albania. Those countries will contribute 1,200-1,500 soldiers to the battlegroup in an effort to send a powerful message of deterrence to Russia.

“The enhanced forward presence is going to provide the defence of Latvia, the Baltics, and all of NATO,” battlegroup commander Lieutenant-Colonel Wade Rutland told reporters on Saturday in Latvia.

It’s a different kind of mission for the Canadian Forces, with an unusual definition of success.

“It’s a bit of a funny mission success criteria, that if nothing happens, we'll all go home happy,” Rutland added.

The troops will be stationed at Camp Adazi, a Latvian military base just outside of Riga.

Canada’s Lieutenant-Colonel Hugo Delisle was given the monumental task of getting the base ready for the Canadian troops, essentially transforming a muddy field into a fully-functioning camp so soldiers could hit the ground running.

“When they arrive, they can walk in and start working the next day,” Delisle said.

The camp, which is completely independent and self-sustaining, includes specialized trucks to transport water and fuel, tents where soldiers will sleep, bathroom trailers to shower in and custom prefab offices to work in. Everything was shipped in hundreds of seacans across the Atlantic from Canada.

In the coming days, the rest of the battlegroup will join up with the Canadians.

CAF Working to Iron Out Challenges Ahead of Latvia Deployment

By: Murray Brewster, CBC News 

Some NATO allies are calling it "Noah's Ark."

The description of the Canadian-led battle group being assembled in Latvia this summer is more than just a cheeky reference to the disparate collection of nations that make up the force of 1,500 heavily-armoured troops.

It underlines some of the very real challenges military planners face, including how much intelligence data Canadians can share with their partners on the ground and what restrictions — known as caveats — the other nations will impose on the use of their troops.

The constraints some European NATO members placed on their soldiers during the Afghan war, notably forbidding them from operating in southern provinces where the Taliban were present, were a major source of tension among the allies.

Nations operating alongside Canada in Latvia will also be coming with caveats, some of which have raised eyebrows at alliance headquarters in Brussels, said defence officials, who were only authorized to only speak with the media on background.

They would not be specific about the restrictions, other than to say officials are working through the matter.

The Trudeau government agreed to the open-ended deployment at last summer's NATO summit in Warsaw, where the western military alliance announced it would place four battalion-sized formations in the three Baltic States and eastern Europe to act as deterrent against a resurgent Russia.
Diverse team
Canada will deploy 450 soldiers, including a headquarters team and a company of infantry soldiers driving the army's new (light armoured vehicle) LAV 6 fighting vehicle, a larger more powerful version of the troop carrier used in Afghanistan. They will be joined by: A troop of tanks from Poland; Two companies of mechanized soldiers travelling in armoured vehicles — one each from Spain and Italy; and infantry soldiers from Slovenia, Albania and Latvia.

"We are certainly recognized as taking on a diverse team," said Brig.-Simon Hetherington, commander of the 3rd Canadian Division, which is training the first rotation of Canadians for deployment in a few weeks.

One of the important preoccupations for commanders will be deciding what intelligence can and cannot be shared.

"Nobody is in the Five-Eyes there so we've got to be careful about what we do there in that regard," said Hetherington, referring to the long-standing intelligence-sharing network among Canada, the U.S., Britain, Australia and New Zealand.

It's not your grandfather's Cold War, Canadian and NATO officials insist

What also makes this deployment different is the cyber threat posed by Russia and the expectation that so-called fake news will be used to drive a wedge between the NATO troops and the Latvian population.

To that end, Hetherington says soldiers are being schooled and reminded to be careful what they post online and where they post it.

"We need to educate our soldiers. What do they say on social media? How do they say it? That's a direct link to the cyber threat," he said.
Cyber vs. 'fake news'

Karlis Eihenbaums, Latvia's ambassador to Canada, says public opinion in his country overwhelmingly supports the NATO deployment.

His country has not faced the same kind of cyberattacks as neighbouring Estonia, but has struggled against disinformation campaigns.

A military unit from Canada marches during a 2014 military parade marking Polish Armed Forces Day, in Warsaw, Poland, where Canadian soldiers were taking part in military exercises. Canada is preparing to lead a multinational battle group in Latvia that will include Polish tanks, as part of NATO's deterrence measures against Russia. (Czarek Sokolowski/AP Photo)

"What is good is our Western allies understand the urgency to do something about this," he said.

There are other more pedantic details for the Canadian-led force to consider.

"The language issue: That's always a challenge, particularly at the junior level," Hetherington told CBC News in an interview. "Our Polish isn't that good and I doubt the young (non-commissioned officer) from Poland's English is going to be that great."

Mechanics is another issue: "How do we communicate? We've all got different radio sets, different comms systems, digital and analogue. We have to work through that."
Tripwire battalions

A study by the Rand Corporation, a U.S.-based think-tank, estimated it would take less than 60 hours for Russian troops to overrun Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania in the event of a full-blown crisis.

The NATO battalions have been loosely described as a "tripwire" to guard against any interference similar to what to has unfolded in Ukraine over the last three years.

Troops from the U.S. Army's 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team parachute from a Boeing C-17 Globemaster III during a NATO-led exercise in May 2014 that including parachuting, airborne operations and infantry skills. (Kacper Pempel/Reuters)

The sobering scenarios are on the minds of soldiers, particularly as tensions with Moscow remain high in the aftermath of allegations of tampering in the U.S. election.

"We need to be prepared for the worst case," said Hetherington.

"This is about showing the solidarity of our alliance. The willingness of Canada to be prepared to defend one of NATO's allies."

In theory, the battle groups would be expected to hold out until NATO could muster its high-readiness rapid reaction force — something that could take days.

Privately, Latvian officials don't believe help would arrive in time, an assessment Hetherington, as a professional military officer, shares.

"It would be over very quickly," he said.

"Are we a tripwire? I've never liked that term. We are a show of assurance. We are a show of deterrence. We hope that everything, like every other war that's happened out there; that diplomacy and other means of national power are going to be the way we avoid the worst case scenario."