CF-18 Life-Extension Risks; Canada looks to fly fighters past the age of 40.

By: Daniel Maillet, CAF Dispatch author
April 25, 2016

As Canada's Defence Review gets started the debate as to which fighter should replace the Royal Canadian Air Force's aging CF-18 Hornet's continues - despite the fact that much of the budget for their replacement has been postponed until after 2021. Something that could cause major problems for the RCAF.

The CF-18s are going through another life extension to keep the fleet air-worthy until 2025; but that is based on a 5 year acquisition rate of a new fighter; which would mean a contract awarded sometime soon - and not in 2021-2022 as the current budget figures would seem to show. According to senior members of the RCAF; if the current life extension is not complete by 2021, it is not economically viable - as more upgrades will be needed. Just because this extension date is 2025 - does not mean the fleet will be retired in 2025; but the risks get much higher when flying a combat aircraft over 40 years old. If the entire fleet is retired in 2025, the oldest aircraft will be 43 years old.

But according to the RCAF plans are in place for a 2025-2030 life expectancy plan for the ageing CF-18s.



The CF-18 Hornet entered service in 1982 as a multirole fighter/interceptor replacement for the CF-5 Freedom Fighter, the CF-101 Voodoo and the CF-104 Starfighter. The Hornet fleet’s Estimated Life Expectancy (ELE) was initially set to 2003, which represented a service life of 20 years after the declaration of Initial Operational Capability. This value was based upon projected initial usage when calculated against the original equipment manufacturer’s certified design life.

In the case of the CF-18 fleet, early structural lifing concerns led to the implementation of a structural fatigue life management program (FLMP) in 1988, and a collaborative full-scale structural fatigue test program with the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) to re-certify the CF-18’s design life based on Canadian and Australian usage. This collaborative effort was known as the International Follow-on Structural Test Program (IFOSTP) and was completed in 2006. Results from this test program formed the basis from which the CF-18 Hornet’s structural Life Extension Program (LEP) was developed. As the aircraft’s structural life is an airworthiness limitation, it is an important factor in calculating a realistic ELE.

The implementation of the FLMP, a LEP tailored to Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) usage requirements, changes to how the CF-18 was flown, and reductions in the planned yearly flying rate (YFR) over the years have all combined to extend the CF-18’s projected physical life.  The CF-18 ELE was extended to 2020 with an assumed three-year overlapping transition window to a new fighter (i.e. 2017-2020) following an extensive study first started in 2004. 

The problem however, is the RCAF has now entered this period; and no replacement has been chosen. Therefore, the CF-18 ELE has once again been examined to determine if it can be viably extended beyond 2020. The analysis for this report assessed the option of extending the CF-18 ELE to 2025 and 2030, using a new five year overlapping transition window to a new fighter.

An ELE of 2020-2025 represents a target beyond which significant structural investments will be required to maintain the fleet’s airworthiness. As such, it represents an ELE extension for modest cost while still resulting in reasonably low to moderate technical and operational risk respectively.

An ELE of 2025-2030 represents a technically feasible albeit risky stretch target. It would require the entire fleet to undergo the Control Point 3 (CP3) Life Extension Program (LEP) along with other significant structural refurbishment investments. This option is a high risk solution, from both a technical and operational perspective.

The operational relevance of the CF-18 Hornet is assured until 2020. Based on the analysis conducted during the Operational Analysis phase of the Next Generation Fighter Capability (NGFC) project, the modernized CF-18 avionics suite remains compliant with the current interoperability requirements of other Canadian services and allies until 2020. However, beyond 2020, some core CF-18 avionics systems will need to be upgraded.

The CF-18 was a leading edge state-of-the-art fighter when it was introduced in the 1980s and it gradually fell behind over time until during the Kosovo conflict it had reached the ‘back edge’ of coalition capability. The capability upgrades over the last 10 years have resulted in the CF-18 again being near the ‘front edge’ during the 2011 Libya operations. This capability has once again  began to erode over the remainder of the Hornet’s service life as technology continues to evolve.

CF-18 fleet size has decreased 44% since the aircraft were purchased due to attrition (operational losses due to accidents) and the management decision to retire older configuration aircraft which would have required significant NRE costs to modernize to the current configuration. Current fleet size is sufficient to meet CFDS commitments; however the flexibility to withdraw significant numbers of aircraft for required upgrades has decreased significantly. Any decision to pursue lengthy and complex upgrades would result in a commitment-capability gap.

With the above information; it would seem that the Canadian Government needs to move forward on a replacement for the CF-18s, or else Canada risks entering a period with a higher attrition rate of older aircraft and a significant capabilities gap in our areal defences.

Sources: 

CF-18 Estimated Life Expectancy 

Time Running out for CF-18 Upgrades as Jets continue to Age

By: David Pugliese, National Post 

Improvements to Canada’s CF-18 jets — which could cost almost $500 million — have to be done within five years or the upgrades to the aging planes won’t make economic sense, according to the officer in charge of determining how to modernize the fighters.

Two aircraft from 425 Tactical Fighter Squadron, 3 Wing Bagotville fly over l’arrondissement
Chicoutimi of ville de Saguenay. Photo: CAF Combat Camera (Feb, 2006)

Whether the Canadian government’s notoriously slow procurement process can push ahead such a project to keep the jets flying until 2025 remains to be seen.

Options on how to upgrade the CF-18s are being looked at, said Lt.-Col. Jean-Marc Brzezinski, who is leading the process in the RCAF’s fighter capability office.

The project officially kicked off last September.

“My mandate has been given roughly about one year to look at what we need to do to make sure the aircraft is airworthy (and) interoperable,” Brzezinski said in an interview.

The Conservatives originally announced the modernization project to keep the fighters flying until 2025 because they hadn’t yet determined how to replace the CF-18s. The project has continued under the Liberals.

Brzezinski said the upgrades have to be on the aircraft by 2021 if the project is to make financial sense. That means decisions have to be made and contracts placed within the next two years.

The air force will continue to monitor the state of the airframes so the planes can keep flying safely. Improvements could be made to the communications equipment to keep up with changes in aviation regulations in civil airspace. Other upgrades could be made to weapons and how the planes communicate and operate with allied fighter jets.

“We have to be able to spend money (so) that everything is ready on the aircraft so that it can used by 2021,” Brzezinski said. “If you start spending a lot of money in 2023 or 2024, and the aircraft is no longer being supported past 2025, then it doesn’t become economically viable.”

Once the air force figures out what it needs, the process shifts and approvals are required from upper levels in the Department of National Defence, Treasury Board and government. Public Services and Procurement Canada also gets involved at a later stage.

Canada’s military procurement system is extremely slow and whether it can accommodate quickly setting up the needed contacts is out of the hands of Brzezinski and the air force.

“We are on a very, very aggressive shortened timeline,” Brzezinski said.

The modernization will keep the planes flying but that doesn’t necessarily mean the fleet will be shut down at the end of 2025. Brzezinski said a smaller number of planes could keep operating for a couple of years after, but that support for the CF-18s will begin to taper off in 2025.

The DND has listed the estimated cost for the modernization as between $250 million and $499 million.

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Brzezinski said the precise cost is not known because his office has yet to determine what needs to be done to the planes, and the government and the military have not made any decisions on how to proceed.

“It really depends on where the department wants to go,” he said. “One of the options could very well be status quo which means we do nothing. We just carry on the maintenance practices.”

Canada previously spent $2.6 billion modernizing the CF-18s in a program that started in 2002. The planes were purchased in 1982.

The Conservative government had planned to buy 65 F-35 stealth fighters to replace the CF-18s. But they put that on hold as the cost of the program significantly increased and technical problems affecting the F-35 emerged.

During the federal election last year, the Liberals said they would not purchase the F-35 if they came to power. Instead a less expensive fighter jet would be bought, they said in their defence platform.

But since then, that promise has been thrown into question by Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan who has claimed that any competition would be open to all jets, suggesting the F-35 could end up being purchased.

Canada in Iraq: Will Oct 17th Airstrike be RCAF CF-18s Last?

With the Liberal Majority win in yesterday's historic Canadian election, the closing curtain is starting for Air Task Force Iraq.

Many have noticed a decline in RCAF airstrikes against ISIS during the election - perhaps for less media attention, or because they were getting read to end operations.

The last airstrike conducted by the RCAF CF-18s took place on October 17th, when two CF-18s struck an ISIS fighting position northeast of Tal Afar.

RCAF CF-18 fires ordinance during a training exercise. National Post 

With the Liberals public call for an end to the bombing campaign, and more effort put into training the Iraqi forces, the question becomes, will the October 17th strike be the RCAF's last? Perhaps the last shots fired in Combat for the CF-18s within the RCAF in general, as the Liberals plan to re-open the competition for replacing the CF-18, and have vowed not to buy the F-35.

No official word on the stand down of Air Task Force Iraq. I will post news on the developing aspects of OP IMPACT as I get the news.